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苏联是如何被慢慢勒死的?——聊聊冷战中美国的遏制战略
★引子

  上个月发了一篇《从量变到质变——中美关系40年》,主要介绍:“中美关系”已经走向对抗,而且这种对抗在短期内【不会】改变。在那篇的末尾,俺也提到了:美国对付中国的策略,最有可能的就是效仿当年(冷战时)对付苏联的手法——也就是【遏制战略】。
  今天写这篇有两个目的:一方面,大部分读者并不了解冷战时期美国所采用的遏制战略,这篇算是扫盲;另一方面,也是出于【以史为鉴】的考虑。


★背景——二战后的世界格局

  要聊美国的冷战策略,先得介绍一下那会儿的时代背景——二战后的世界格局。
  第二次世界大战把地球上很多地方变成废墟,二战前几个主要的工业发达国家,除了美国置身事外,其它几个(英、法、苏、德、日)都被重创。以欧洲为例,即使在二战结束2年后的1947年,整个欧洲的经济水平依然显著低于二战前(农业生产是1938年的83%,工业生产为88%,出口额仅为59%)。
  作为二战时的盟友,美苏关系开始闹僵。双方的口水战开始增多——丘吉尔发表了“铁幕演说”,苏联的真理部不断宣称“帝国主义亡我之心不死”。


★二战后美国对苏战略的三种选择

  当美苏关系逐渐破裂/恶化,当时的美国决策层对苏联的战略有三种选择。

◇选项1——重回“孤立主义”

  二战前,主导美国外交界的是“孤立主义”。(所谓的“孤立主义”,通俗地说就是“管好自己的事情,不参与美洲以外的事务”)
  即使像小罗斯福(富兰克林·罗斯福)那么强势的总统,在1941年之前,也不敢轻易卷入欧洲和亚洲的战事。一直等到1941年“日本偷袭珍珠港”之后,小罗斯福利用全国上下群情激愤,才正式宣战。
  二战后,美国政坛的一些人又老调重谈,希望回到二战前那种孤立主义的态势。至于欧洲面临苏联的威胁,孤立主义者认为:欧洲的事情让欧洲人自己去解决。

◇选项2——对苏联进行“预防性军事打击”

  与孤立主义相对的,是一些激进反共的人士。他们认为:希特勒能够在二战前不断坐大,就是因为英美等国犯了“绥靖主义”的错误。如今,面对苏联的坐大,不能再犯类似的错误了。这些人主张【先下手为强】,对苏联发动“预防性军事打击”。
  持这种观点的人里面,就包括大名鼎鼎的巴顿将军——他在二战后就主张,重新武装若干德国师,以发动对苏战争。
  不光军方有这类想法,政界也有。杜鲁门的特别助理克拉克·克利福德(Clark Clifford)在咨询了多方意见之后,向总统提交了一份“绝密报告”,其中提及了:战后苏联频频在欧亚地区进行扩张,美国应该暂从欧亚缓撤军和裁军,加强与英法等盟友的合作,寻找机会对苏联在东欧的驻军进行“预防性打击”,必要时可以攻击苏联本土。

◇选项3——用“联合国框架”拉拢苏联,以建立战后国际新秩序

  全面说到那两种策略都【不是】美国政坛的主流观点。在二战后期,美国外交界的主流立场是由小罗斯福确立的“大国外交”。通俗地说就是:通过一个国际性组织(联合国)来协调大国关系,划分势力范围,以实现永久的世界和平。在这点上,小罗斯福很类似于一战后的美国总统伍德罗·威尔逊,威尔逊在一战后花很大力气建立了“国际联盟”(简称“国联”),也是为了达到同样目的。
  比如说:二战后期大名鼎鼎的雅尔塔会议,美苏英三巨头(罗斯福、斯大林、丘吉尔)齐聚一堂,就是为了在全球范围内【重新】划分势力范围。
…………
…………
…………
◇苏共领导层的分裂引发“八一九政变”

  在内忧外患之下,苏共领导层【公开】分裂成三派。
1. 以戈尔巴乔夫(苏联总统/苏共总书记)为首的【中间派】——主张温和改革
2. 以叶利钦(俄罗斯总统)为首的【激进派】——主张激进改革
3. 以亚纳耶夫(苏联副总统)为首的【保守派】——拒绝改革

  正是因为领导层分裂的【公开化】,最终导致了保守派孤注一掷,发动“819政变”,把戈尔巴乔夫软禁,由亚纳耶夫出任“代总统”,宣布全国进入紧急状态,并准备逮捕叶利钦为首的激进派。
  但是共产党已经完全失去民心,莫斯科民众纷纷上街声援叶利钦。然后,调往首都莫斯科进行戒严的装甲师也倒戈。保守派的政变仅持续3天就破产。

不见图 请翻墙
(政变集团调动装甲部队进入莫斯科,准备戒严)

不见图 请翻墙
(装甲师倒戈,坦克车手挥舞俄罗斯国旗)

不见图 请翻墙
(俄罗斯议会大厦前,叶利钦站在坦克上,向声援他的民众发表讲话)

不见图 请翻墙
(政变第2天,叶利钦在俄罗斯议会大厦阳台上向支持者挥手致意)

  保守派发动的“819政变”不但没能挽救苏共,反而把苏共给直接弄死了——政变被粉碎后,叶利钦宣布:禁止共产党在俄罗斯的一切活动(叶利钦本人早在苏共“28大”就公开声明退党,所以他才有这样的底气宣布取缔苏共)。
  过了没多久,苏联就解体了。


★留在结尾的问题——苏联崩溃的【根源】是啥?

  今天这篇博文是俺开博九年半以来,最长的一篇原创博文。终于写到尾声了。在最后,俺想给读者留一个问题——苏联崩溃的【根源】是啥?
  关于这个问题,【最肤浅】的回答就是——怪罪戈尔巴乔夫。
  为啥说这个答案【最肤浅】?要知道戈尔巴乔夫是在1985年3月才出任苏共总书记。那年,苏联已经是一个千疮百孔的烂摊子。戈尔巴乔夫就算再牛逼,恐怕也回天乏力。

  很多同学看了俺这篇长博文,会得出结论——苏联被美国佬弄死滴。
  这个回答恐怕也不令人满意。哲学上有句名言——【外因要靠内因起作用】。如果苏联自身的政治和经济体制很健康,再加上它拥有全球数一数二的军事力量,就算美国佬要想搞垮它,估计也做不到。

  所以,这个问题要到苏联内部去找原因(喜欢思考的读者,不妨自己琢磨一下)。
  马克思有句名言——资本主义自身孕育了毁灭的种子。早在19世纪,马克思就无数次论证了——资本主义很快就要完蛋。共产国际和苏共的历次代表大会也无数次地欢呼——资本主义的总危机马上就要爆发了,资本主义世界马上就要灭亡了。
  讽刺的是,一个世纪过去了,又一个世纪过去了,资本主义变得比以往更加充满活力,反而是马列主义自己奄奄一息。
  所以,在本文的结尾,俺想套用一下马克思的话——【马列主义自身孕育了毁灭的种子】。
  (哪天俺如果来了兴致,就这个话题展开写一篇博文)


俺博客上,和本文相关的帖子(需翻墙):
从量变到质变——中美关系40年
影评:《苏维埃往事》——帮你看清苏联和纳粹的共同本质
处在历史转折点的小人物们——回首80年代的几则往事
最“纯正”的共产主义政权——红色高棉简史
谈谈真理部对朝鲜战争的忽悠
面对共产党——民国人文大师的众生相
北朝鲜金氏王朝的崛起——聊聊金日成的历次大清洗
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本博客所有的原创文章,作者皆保留版权。转载必须包含本声明,保持本文完整,并以超链接形式注明作者编程随想和本文原始地址:
https://program-think.blogspot.com/2018/08/USA-Containment-Strategies-in-Cold-War.html
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